Liberation Day: Forcing Us To Pay Attention To Trump
We've looked at this through many views, except as Trump
The media has spent a lot of time trying to figure out the implications of Liberation Day, and Trump’s motives behind it. I’ve watched many interviews, read many posts and comments, and there are two angles that I haven’t seen mentioned. Two angles that provide important context in a situation like this where one man is injecting mass uncertainty into the entire world’s economy.
Financial Self-Interest: Trump's Balance Sheet
The first angle is Trump’s balance sheet. Does Trump own the S&P 500? Is Trump invested in America’s public equities? What does his portfolio look like? To my knowledge, he does not own equities. He owns real estate that is sensitive to bond prices. While the stock market is screaming that his tariff plan is bad for the economy, he is not personally feeling pain right now. If anything, his empire will do better as bond rates crash. His clientele is the 1%, and they’ll still be able to play golf and go on vacations even if the price of shoes doubles and unemployment hits 7% because of his policies. For this particular tariff policy, if we view Trump’s skin in the game, how much pain is he actually going to feel in his net worth?
The Narcissist's Dream: Creating a World That Must Pay Attention
The second angle is Trump’s narcissism. The US economy is being roiled with uncertainty. If I have $500M to invest, what do I do right now? Should I open an iPhone assembly factory in Lubbock? Or will the tariffs be gone next Tuesday? Should I open a shoe factory in Boise? Or will the tariffs be gone before shovels are in the ground? If I run a needlepoint store, should I hold off on ordering more canvases from Germany, perhaps angering customers, or should I pay the 20% tax on those canvases? The questions are innumerable. Capital is and will remain frozen because of this uncertainty.
This same uncertainty that is killing the economy is derived from one single man. Because of that, capital has to pay attention to every interview, every podcast, every time he opens his mouth, capital has to be paying attention1. By setting a tariff rate on every country in the world, Trump has set up a hundred press conferences, a hundred announcements, a hundred plus times we have to hang on his every word. This is the dream scenario for a narcissist. For someone wired like Donald Trump, this is the dream.
The Psychology of Resource Guardianship
For those who haven’t studied narcissism, I’d like to give you a good example you’ve probably run into. Take a dog rescue. In Texas, there are several breed-specific rescue groups, and what you’ll sometimes find is a narcissistic operator. Someone who lives in say Dallas, but drives all over Texas immediately adopting all French Bulldogs that show up at any shelter. Their goal is to have a total monopoly on French Bulldogs. Why? So that they can make you jump through hoops, do interviews, and beg them to be so merciful as to bestow the privilege of owning “such a marvelous breed”. They derive pleasure from forcing people to pay attention to them, be kind to them, and tell them whatever it is they want to hear, which is usually how great they are. I’ve used this example, but I’ve seen this resource guardian narcissism in several scenarios. Think local niche store owner or local charity event operator. You’ve run into someone who frustrated you, but put themselves in a position where you felt you had to deal with them.
End Game
Donald Trump has just set up a good scenario for Donald Trump. His assets are doing just fine and now you must pay attention to him. The question we are all asking is “for how long?”. My sense from studying psychology is that we will be stuck with this uncertainty until something forces Donald to lift it. Otherwise, he will thrive being on TV every day. Having meetings every day. The one thing Donald does not want is for smooth sailing and no one talking to and or about Donald.
https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/love-in-the-age-narcissism/202202/narcissistic-obsession-attention